Draft Lottery Quick Reactions

Last night’s draft lottery was very unexpected, and very eventful.  The Pelicans, Grizzlies, and Lakers all jumped into the top 4 despite not having very good odds of doing so.  Although New Orleans had been considered a possible Zion Williamson (the near lock to be the number 1 pick) destination before the lottery, it was always with the assumption that they’d acquire him by trading Anthony Davis.  Now, they can draft Zion and trade Anthony Davis for young players who fit well around him. This changes the market for Davis in a huge way, and is huge for New Orleans’ future. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, jumped to the second pick of the draft, and the assumption is that they’ll pick Murray State’s Ja Morant.  This, in turn, frees up Memphis to trade Mike Conley without having a complete hole at the point guard position. If they want to remain competitive and keep Conley for the duration of his deal (which seems like a bad idea to me), they could go R.J. Barrett to get some help along the wing. Drafting third will be the Knicks.  I know a lot of New York fans are disappointed that they didn’t get the first pick, but honestly, getting third is still good when considering the sharp drop from third to fourth and that they only had a 14% chance for the top pick in the first place. They’ll get to choose from R.J. Barrett or Ja Morant, both of which are great prospects.  Or, they could attempt to trade #3, Kevin Knox, and Mitchell Robinson for Anthony Davis (I’m not sure if this package is enough, though). The Los Angeles Lakers jumped up to fourth from their expected eleventh, which is huge for their chances of trading for a star. It adds to their already deep pool of assets and young players, fueling speculation for Anthony Davis to get sent to LA.  

But, we know that since three teams jumped into the top 4, that means some teams were hurt by this too.  In particular, I think the Suns, Bulls, and Hawks benefited the least from the lottery. They’ll be picking 6th, 7th, and 8th, respectively, down from their expected 3rd, 4th, and 5th.  While some of them could still end up with the guy they wanted, Phoenix has to be hurting after all but losing the chance to draft Ja Morant, who would’ve fit very well with their core. On the positive side for the Hawks, though, they did get the Dallas pick conveyed to them this year, and in turn will be selecting at both 8 and 10.  This presents a very good opportunity for them to grab not one but two guys they like, specifically because Phoenix and Chicago are likely to pick Point Guards, a position Atlanta has no need for.

Looking forward, this draft is going to have some pretty big implications on the future of the league in various ways, as mentioned above, but it all comes back to New Orleans.  They massively benefited from this draft, not only by getting the first overall pick, but also by having Los Angeles and New York both land in the top four. It will up the offers they get for Anthony Davis, force Boston (and other competitors) to throw more in if they intend to go for him, and largely means they’ll be well set up for the future.  If David Griffin handles the situation well, I believe that New Orleans will have more around Zion Williamson than they ever did with Anthony Davis, besides the one season with DeMarcus Cousins. If the Lakers were to trade Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, and the 4th pick for Anthony Davis (which might be too much, or too little), New Orleans would have a wonderful young core to build around with a ton of team control.  

I’ll be posting a mock draft sometime soon with this newly established draft order.  I think the top 3 are pretty much locks, but from there, I think there may be a decent amount of movement between what I had just last week and what I would have now.  Although the latter half of the draft has been set in stone since the playoffs started, one pick in the lottery could cause a whole ripple effect through the rest of the draft.  I’m really excited for the offseason to start, but in the meantime, we still have the playoffs to finish. My picks for the two series: Warriors in 4, Raptors in 7.