The draft is tomorrow, and while I haven’t written in a long time, I wanted to get out a top 25-30 big board before then for posterity’s sake. I didn’t have a ton of time to write long analysis articles on each player, but summarized my thoughts on my top 10 guys. I’ve broken my top 25 into a few tiers based on how confident I am in them. This draft as a whole is kind of weak, but I do think there are a few gems in the rough.

Tier 1:  Potential Stars

  1. LaMelo Ball:  My favorite prospect by far in the draft, LaMelo is an amazing passer and ball-handler, which he uses to create easy shots for both himself and his teammates.  He will be able to create in the pick&roll from day one.  His biggest questions are the three point shot and defense, both of which I’m confident he will improve at.  His shot selection will presumably be better in an NBA setting where he’ll no longer be “the man”, and will be held more accountable by teammates.  That alone will help his percentage go up.  In terms of defense, LaMelo is a really smart basketball player.  At 6’ 6”, he also has plus size for a point guard.  If he can put in consistent effort, he has the tools to be a good defender in a few years.  
  1. Anthony Edwards:  Edwards has an NBA ready body and will be a plus athlete from the minute he steps onto the court.  He’s shown great scoring potential, and still has a lot to learn.  I don’t think he’s going to be a super efficient rookie from day one, and will likely struggle to consistently score every game.  But in a few years, with his athletic ability and talent, I think he can be a dangerous three level scorer who is a bulldog on defense.  The defense part is certainly projecting a bit, as his effort on that side of the ball waned heavily at Georgia.

Tier 2: Potential High Level Starters

  1. Onyeka Okongwu:  Obviously the best part of Okongwu is his defense, and ability to switch to the perimeter and guard wings.  He can block shots, play alongside a center (though I wouldn’t want to do this for a full game), and is an efficient inside scorer.  If he can add a three point shot to his game, he’d be one of the most unique young big men in the game today.  The one downside is his passing and ball-handling ability; Okongwu didn’t really show anything there at USC.  But as a C/PF, I doubt he will be asked to do that very often.
  1. James Wiseman:  Possibly the biggest name in the draft, Wiseman has a lot of hype around him, and I’m not quite on that level with him yet.  I think he’s going to be good, but his skillset doesn’t quite impress me in the modern NBA.  For now, at least, the team drafting him will have to play traditional defense (i.e. not switching).  That being said, Wiseman is a great rim protector and rebounder, so this isn’t a bad thing.  It just narrows the list of teams that may be interested in him.  On offense, he’s an elite athlete who can finish above the rim, and has shown good scoring ability, but he likes to take bad shots in the mid-range sometimes which I don’t like.  
  1. Devin Vassell:  I think Vassell is getting slept on a little bit right now.  He’s going to be a 3&D wing from day one, and I love that value in this draft class where nobody is a sure bet.  He’s got a really safe floor, and I think he has room to grow offensively.  Vassell wreaks havoc on defense, either off ball or on ball, and adds a great shooting stroke on offense.  If he can add a secondary offensive skill, he could be a really good starter for the considerable future.  
  1. Isaac Okoro:  Okoro and Vassell are similar, but different.  If I could combine Vassell’s shooting and Okoro’s ability to read the floor and drive, the ensuing player might be the best one in the draft.  Unfortunately, that can’t happen.  In Okoro, we have another great defender, super athletic wing, but his questions are on the offensive end.  His jump shot is questionable at best, and teams will be able to play off of him until he can fix it.  That means it’s going to be hard for him to get minutes as a rookie.  If he can start shooting better, though, watch out.
  1. Deni Avdija:  Deni is interesting to me, he has great size, and his creation ability as a big guard is a thing all NBA teams want.  But I don’t see any elite skill with Avdija right now, which is why I’m still hesitant to rank him at 7.  Fortunately for him, though, this draft class is pretty weak.  I kind of see him as a Tomas Satoransky type player.  
  1. Tyrese Haliburton: I really like Hali.  He is a good defender, and otherworldly passer in transition.  In halfcourt offense, though, I find it hard to see him as anything more than a secondary creator/spot up guy.  He doesn’t have serious pull-up shooting ability, but if he can play alongside a guy like Trae Young he’d be great.  

Tier 3: Good Starters

  1. Killian Hayes:  No real weaknesses, Hayes has a high ceiling.  He’s pretty well rounded, but I think his limited athleticism hinders him from reaching an elite ceiling like the guys above him.
  1. Kira Lewis:  Kira may be my personal favorite in this group.  Already playing two years at Alabama but still only 19, I love Lewis’ speed and shooting.  The thing that is going to hinder him is his leaping ability.  But, I think Kira can at least be a consistent scoring threat from the point for a long time.  
  1. Obi Toppin
  2. Patrick Williams
  3. Tyrese Maxey

Tier 4: Difference Making Role Players

  1. Aaron Nesmith
  2. R.J. Hampton
  3. Saddiq Bey
  4. Aleksej Pokusevski

Tier 5: Mixed Bag, Best of the Rest

  1. Cole Anthony
  2. Desmond Bane
  3. Isaiah Stewart
  4. Josh Green
  5. Precious Achiuwa
  6. Robert Woodard
  7. Malachi Flynn
  8. Xavier Tillman

Next 5:  Tyler Bey, Devon Dotson, Leandro Bolmaro, Tyrell Terry, Jaden McDaniels

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