Just 7 days from the first game of the NBA Season (!!!), I figured now would be a good time to make an official prediction on every team’s over/under for the 2018-19 season, per ActionNetwork. Obviously some of these picks will be skewed due to injuries and trades, but hopefully there won’t be nearly as many injuries as last season. In this article I will give a brief case for every team going over, going under, and what I ultimately think happens.
Atlanta Hawks, 22.5 Wins:
The Hawks project to be one of the worst teams in the league this year, and the projected 22.5 wins reflects that. They’re a very young team who figure to be selling their good veterans at the deadline. I think this is a pretty solid bet to go under, as they won 24 games last year with a better coach, had Dennis Schroder instead of Trae Young, and have lots of developmental players to give minutes to. If they go over, it’s because Taurean Prince makes another big leap and Trae Young knocks down the shots we’ve seen he’s capable of hitting at an efficient rate. Official Prediction: Under
Boston Celtics, 59 Wins:
After winning 55 games last season, the Celtics will be adding Gordon Hayward to their roster and theoretically will get an extra 22 games from Kyrie Irving. On top of that, there’s expected improvement from young studs Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, and Terry Rozier. If everything goes as expected, Boston wins over 60 games and gets the first seed in the East. One way I see them going under (aside from injury) is if one of their rotation guys gets sulky he’s not getting enough shots and causes locker room issues. Official Prediction: Over
Brooklyn Nets, 32 Wins:
I really like the moves Brooklyn made this summer, and expect them to be much better than last season. They filled out their bench, have a young core with lots of potential, and have a great coach in Kenny Atkinson. This is a really important year for D’Angelo Russell, as he’s set to go into restricted free agency at the end of the season. If this can finally be his breakout year, I think he and Spencer Dinwiddie can work together to lead the Nets to 32 wins. But, if Russell doesn’t take that next step, it’s very realistic for the Nets to fall short. They bet a lot on him when they traded for him, and it’s time for D’Angelo to prove he was worth it. I’m trying to talk myself out of it, but the more I think about it the more I like the young guys potential to improve on this team as well as the solid bench additions like Ed Davis and Shabazz Napier. Official Prediction: Over
Charlotte Hornets, 35.5 Wins:
This is a tough team to forecast because it’s not unreasonable to think Kemba Walker gets traded at the deadline. For the sake of this piece, though, I’m going to assume the Hornets are still relevant in the playoff race and hold on to him. The Hornets won 36 games last year, return all their players minus Dwight Howard, and add Miles Bridges. While I doubt Cody Zeller plays a full season, if he can get to 65 I think Charlotte can get past 36 wins. If he fails to stay healthy and Nic Batum keeps up his awful play from last season, they won’t make it close to the playoffs. Official Prediction: Over
Chicago Bulls, 30 Wins:
This is a tough team to predict. On one hand, they’ve got lots of talent at every position. On the other hand, their defense projects to be really bad and the Bulls are faced with a logjam in the frontcourt. The offense projects to be just as confusing, as 3 of the 5 starters are ball-reliant scorers and the two who aren’t might be the best of the group (Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr). There’s going to be ups and downs for this team all season, and these inconsistencies worry me. Official Prediction: Under
Cleveland Cavaliers, 31 Wins:
After managing to hit 50 wins last season, the Cavaliers lost LeBron James in the summer and added rookie Colin Sexton. Besides that, though, not many other major additions were made to this team. It’s gonna be really interesting to see how this team hand-crafted for LeBron James does without LeBron James. It all depends on the play of Kevin Love for me. Official Prediction: Under
Dallas Mavericks, 35 Wins:
The Dallas Mavericks are good. Don’t get me wrong. But it’s hard for me to imagine this team getting to 35 wins. Last year, the Los Angeles Lakers won 35 games. Do I think these Mavericks are as good as those Lakers? Yes. But, the Western Conference got way better this summer. I think adding Luka Doncic and DeAndre Jordan are going to help the Mavericks a lot, but getting past 35 wins is going to be really tough. I see them going over if Dennis Smith Jr. and Maxi Kleber get a lot better, Luka Doncic is as good as the hype and then some, and DeAndre Jordan has a revitalized season defensively. Official Prediction: Under
Denver Nuggets, 47.5 Wins:
I’m pretty high on this year’s Nuggets team; Their big 3 of Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, and Nikola Jokic should all get better, Paul Millsap should play near a full season, and Will Barton is a good player. They aren’t gonna defend well, but with an offense that projects to be near the top 5, and playing in Denver with a natural home-court advantage, they will win a lot of games just by outscoring the other opponent. Denver won 46 last year, and with the expected improvement across the board, I think they can win 2 more. It’s just such a tough conference. Official Prediction: Under
Detroit Pistons, 38.5 Wins:
This bet is fairly easy for me as a Pistons fan, and I’ll explain why. The Pistons won 39 games last year, are replacing Stan Van Gundy with Dwayne Casey, get a whole summer for Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond to develop chemistry, and will hopefully get a healthy season from Reggie Jackson. When Reggie is on the court, the Pistons are a much better team, even if he isn’t the best defender or most efficient shooter. He just seems to help them win. That being said, I can definitely see this going under if Jackson gets injured again, and Drummond gets frustrated with his lesser role in the offense. Official Prediction: Over
Golden State Warriors, 62 Wins:
The Warriors have been one of the hardest teams to predict the last few years, thanks to coasting and whatnot. On paper, the talent of the Warriors is enough to win close to 70 games, but an injury to Steph Curry (which has happened all too often) could really hurt their chances of that happening. There’s also the rest games to consider. Last year the Warriors won 58 games with both Kevin Durant and Steph Curry missing sizable chunks of time. I think they might be pushing a little harder this year with increased competition, and due to their bench being pretty weak, the starters are going to play more. If one of Curry, Durant, or Klay Thompson get hurt, it’s a very easy under. Official Prediction: Over
Houston Rockets, 56.5 Wins:
This is another really easy bet for me and I think 56.5 is crazy low for this team. Yes, the Western Conference is getting better, and yes, the Rockets lost stud defenders Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute. But, their additions this offseason are being massively underrated. There is no way that Carmelo Anthony shoots as poorly as he did last season, and it seems like he’s fully bought into whatever role coach Mike D’Antoni wants him in. Add another solid 3&D guy in James Ennis III, and keep your core of Chris Paul, James Harden, and Clint Capela, and that’s a recipe for another 60 win season. Official Prediction: Over
Indiana Pacers, 48 Wins:
I see Indiana as a little bit of a regression candidate this season, mainly due to the fact that they really overachieved last season. They were good in the playoffs, no doubt, but teams know they’ll be coming now and the only meaningful addition they made this offseason was Tyreke Evans. I still think they’re going to be solid, but I’m not sure if they hit 48 again. If Myles Turner doesn’t progress and Oladipo can’t keep up the crazy level of play from last season, I find the under being pretty likely. On the other hand, if Oladipo can do that, and the rest of the team can keep playing hard defense and hitting shots, they’ll hit the over. Official Prediction: Under
Los Angeles Clippers, 37.5 Wins:
This team has changed so much since last summer, it’s crazy. Gone are Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and DeAndre Jordan. This current squad is a mix of different types of guys: you’ve got scoring forwards in Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari, hard-nosed defenders in Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley, and everything in-between. The team chemistry will be interesting to see, but they definitely have the talent to get to 38 wins and achieve the over. If they can’t find a way to work together, though, this team could easily be lower than 37. I think Doc Rivers is a good coach and will be able to get the best out of all of his guys, even if it’s currently a murky fit. Official Prediction: Over
Los Angeles Lakers, 47.5 Wins:
After winning 35 games last season, the Lakers now welcome LeBron James and a group of misfits. It’s a tough conference, but between the young guys growing, LeBron James, and the solid veteran core coming in, I think they will be right on the border of 47-48 wins. This is a really tough bet. I like what Luke Walton has been doing, and think he’s gonna be able to create a good rotation to maximize this team’s talent. The fit of LeBron next to a lot of other playmakers will be an interesting one to watch this season, and I certainly think it’s a strategy worth trying for a season. If LeBron can’t make it work next to a lot of non-shooters and better teams take advantage of JaVale McGee being their only center, they’ll slide in just under 47 wins. Official Prediction: Over
Memphis Grizzlies, 33.5 Wins:
Taking quite the fall from grace last season and dropping all the way from a competitive playoff series with the Spurs to 22 wins, the Grizzlies are going to be interesting to watch this year. They should be getting a healthy Mike Conley back, who is a really good player, and also added Garrett Temple and Kyle Anderson. The starting five looks to be pretty good on both ends of the floor but after that the bench isn’t pretty. If anything happens to Conley again this team falls apart, and while they could probably stay afloat with a Marc Gasol injury (Jaren Jackson will get to play his natural position if that happens), it wouldn’t be easy. I think they’ll be good enough to win 34 but I don’t expect anything in the high 30s. Official Prediction: Over
Miami Heat, 43.5 Wins:
Pretty much returning the same team that they had in the playoffs last year, the Miami Heat are relying on self-improvement to get better this year. That’s certainly possible with young guys like Josh Richardson, Justise Winslow, and Bam Adebayo on the roster, but they also have some older guys like James Johnson and Dwyane Wade who could get worse with age. However, I expect the improvement to outweigh the regression, and the Heat won 44 games last year. Official Prediction: Over
Milwaukee Bucks, 48.5 Wins:
I (and many others) expect this to be a huge season from Giannis Antetokounmpo, and that directly affects how well the Bucks are gonna do this season. Not only is Giannis getting better every year, but Milwaukee also added Mike Budenholzer, Brook Lopez, and Ersan Ilyasova. Budenholzer is a fantastic coach and is a significant upgrade over Jason Kidd and Joe Prunty. I’m also a big fan of Brook Lopez’s fit with this team (less so about Ersan). Their ball-movement is going to be a lot better, which should benefit Eric Bledsoe, who had a bit of a rough end to the season. They won 44 games last year, but Budenholzer’s system along with Giannis’ improvement should be more than enough to win them an extra 6 or so games. Official Prediction: Over
Minnesota Timberwolves, 41.5 Wins:
Thanks to the Jimmy Butler trade request this number is way lower than Minnesota’s win total from last season. That whole situation makes this one harder to predict too, because we have no idea what the Timberwolves could get for Jimmy or how many games he plays for them. Assuming they trade him a couple games into the season for a somewhat established wing, I think they’ve got a fair chance at 41.5 wins. Karl-Anthony Towns is that good, but his supporting cast without Butler is pretty awful. Jeff Teague is past his prime, as is Taj Gibson and Derrick Rose. Andrew Wiggins, barring any crazy improvement, hasn’t learned to become an efficient scorer yet. Losing Jimmy Butler robs the Timberwolves of their best playmaker, defender, and leader. If KAT and Wiggins both take meaningful steps forward defensively and offensively, then maybe the Wolves go above .500 this season. Official Prediction: Under
New Orleans Pelicans, 45.5 Wins:
New Orleans might have the best frontcourt in the NBA in Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, and Nikola Mirotic. No matter what two of those three you’ve got out there, you’ll have a great blend of shooting, defense, and inside scoring. Teams will be hard-pressed to play a full 48 minutes and have trouble against them. The Pelican’s problem lies with their wing depth, as it usually does. Maybe Solomon Hill can give them some sort of value this season, and E’Twaun Moore can keep playing as a small 3, but they aren’t gonna be able to compete with the best teams in the league with such a glaring hole. The Pelicans are a good, but not great team. Official Prediction: Over
New York Knicks, 28 Wins:
28 wins is extremely high for this team. They may be the worst team in the East, and I’m saying that seriously. Kristaps Porzingis is coming off of an ACL tear and will be taking his return slowly, and after him they don’t have many great guys on this team. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Enes Kanter are good offensive players who give it back (and some) on the other side of the floor. Kevin Knox looks promising, but he’s a rookie. People tend to forget rookies usually don’t make as big of an impact on such great efficiency as what happened last year. At point guard, they’ve got Trey Burke, and two projects: Frank Ntilikina and Emmanuel Mudiay. I have some hope for Ntilikina but he’s still a couple of years away from being an above-average offensive player. I’m way down on the Knicks this year. Official Prediction: Under
Oklahoma City Thunder, 48.5 Wins:
After pulling a shocker in July and retaining Paul George (I thought for sure he was gone), the Thunder continued making moves to bolster their bench. Unfortunately for them, Andre Roberson is still a ways back from fully recovering from a scary patellar tendon injury. Does that mean we see Schroder start? Personally, I’d rather see them bring back Corey Brewer or try someone else to keep him in a sixth man role. But once Roberson does come back, OKC is gonna be really good. Patrick Patterson will slot in nicely at the 4 in the starting lineup, and Schroder and Jerami Grant will be big off the bench. The Thunder could go under if Westbrook takes too many shots, Roberson can’t make a full recovery by January, or Patterson can’t provide a stretch element. Keep in mind they’re playing in the Western Conference, and 49 games is really hard to get to. Official Prediction: Over
Orlando Magic, 31 Wins:
Here’s another Eastern Conference team that I just don’t think has the potential to hit 31 wins. They won 25 last year, and there should be improvement from young guys Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac, but the personnel doesn’t seem very good. There’s a lot of guys on the wing and in the frontcourt, but the guards aren’t great, and no one on this team except Gordon really is above-average. I expect the Magic to be in the upper 20s but not in the 30s. If Isaac can get a shooting touch and Gordon develops into an all-star caliber, Blake Griffin type player, then sure, they can win more than 30 games. But is that going to happen? Probably not. There’s a lot to look forward to in the future for this team, but this season isn’t gonna be very good. Official Prediction: Under
Philadelphia 76ers, 54 Wins:
I’m skeptical about the 76ers starting Markelle Fultz over J.J. Redick. They lose a lot of spacing doing that, and I understand the logic behind getting Fultz his confidence back, but wouldn’t he be much better suited for a sixth man role on this team? Regardless, Philly is gonna be great this year. Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Markelle Fultz have insane potential, and the rest of the team is good too. One thing I’m interested in though is how losing Belinelli and Ilyasova will affect this team. When they joined in February, this 76ers team transformed overnight and started rattling off win after win. Neither are on the team now, but they did add Wilson Chandler and Mike Muscala and are getting an improved Fultz. They won 52 with Embiid missing time, but I’m not super confident he plays close to 82 games this season either. Official Prediction: Even
Phoenix Suns, 29 Wins:
The Suns have no idea what they’re doing. Less than a week before the regular season, Phoenix GM Ryan McDonough was fired. The Suns don’t have a point guard, added a couple veterans to supposedly help ‘compete’ this year, and Josh Jackson doesn’t look great right now. Devin Booker is going to win them a couple games, and Deandre Ayton looks to be good right away, but besides them there’s no real cohesiveness on the roster. There’s even talk of Trevor Ariza taking a buyout in February. I don’t see this team getting very close to 29 wins just based on their imminent defensive struggles and incentive to play their young guys as the season progresses. Official Prediction: Under
Portland Trail Blazers, 42 Wins:
I’m not a fan of Portland’s summer. They lost Ed Davis, Shabazz Napier, and Pat Connaughton, and brought in Seth Curry, Nik Stauskas, and Anfernee Simons. But, Zach Collins should get better, and I really like what he can do. If he can replace Davis’ role and stretch the floor, that will be huge for the Blazers. Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu both need to stay healthy. The Blazers won 49 games last season, and I don’t see them losing 7 less games this season. Damian Lillard will still be great, C.J. McCollum should be a little better than last year, and Jusuf Nurkic has room to grow too. If the bench proves to be too weak to keep Portland in games, that’s when they dip below .500. Official Prediction: Over
Sacramento Kings, 26 Wins:
On one hand, the Kings won 27 games last season. On the other, their conference just got a whole lot harder. I think the Kings may be the worst team in the NBA, and don’t really think it’s too likely they go over. They are better than last year, with all their young guys improving, but the fact that they’re so much worse even compared to the Suns just doesn’t bode well for them. I’m not very high on Marvin Bagley III either, who figures to get lots of playing time this year. One reason to take the over is that they don’t have their pick this year and have no reason to tank. I just don’t see it with this team. Official Prediction: Under
San Antonio Spurs, 43.5 Wins:
If this was Sunday and Dejounte Murray wasn’t out for the season, I would definitely take the over here. Now I have to give it a lot more thought. Winning 47 games last season, there has been a crazy amount of roster turnover for this team. They return a few key members, but after that we see new faces like DeMar DeRozan, Dante Cunningham, Marco Belinelli, Lonnie Walker IV (Who is out for 2 months), Jakob Poeltl, and more. You’ve got to trust Coach Gregg Popovich to get them to the playoffs until they don’t, and I’m a little more optimistic on Derrick White as the starting Point Guard than the general consensus is. It’s very easy to see how this team doesn’t win 44 games though: the defensive issues are too strong even for Pop to fix, and the offense just doesn’t have enough efficiency and shooting to stay in games. Official Prediction: Over
Toronto Raptors, 54.5 Wins:
Last season the Toronto Raptors won 59 games. They are replacing former Head Coach Dwayne Casey with a seemingly more progressive one in Nick Nurse, and are replacing DeMar DeRozan with Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard. How on earth do people expect this team to lose 5 games more than last season?? I think the Raptors have a legitimate chance at 60 wins and getting the 1st seed in the Eastern Conference. They can trot out some of the best defensive lineups in the NBA, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Toronto ends the season with a top 5 offense and defense. That’s how good I think they can be. It all depends on how Kawhi Leonard can come back from this ‘injury’ he’s been dealing with for the last year and a half. Official Prediction: Over
Utah Jazz, 50 Wins:
This team goes as Rudy Gobert does. If he can stay healthy, Utah has a chance at winning over 55 games this year. That’s how good they played when he was on the court. Donovan Mitchell should take another step too, and the rest of the team has great chemistry. Unfortunately, Gobert does not always play a full season. When he steps out, the defense really takes a step back, and the offense doesn’t play at a high enough pace to win them games that way. It forces the Jazz to play in a way that doesn’t suit them. Ultimately, I trust Gobert to play more than he did last season, and that should push them above 50 wins, which isn’t too difficult for a team this good. Official Prediction: Over
Washington Wizards, 45.5 Wins:
Last but not least, the Washington Wizards. In a disappointing 2017-18 season, the Wizards finished with 43 wins and snuck in to the playoffs as the eighth seed. I don’t see things getting much better for them, though, as the rest of the Eastern Conference playoff teams look to be better than Washington. I think they can get right up to 45 but it seems unlikely they get over that, just because of the potential chemistry issues in the locker room and the perennial disappointment we’ve been seeing the last couple years. Official Prediction: Under
5 Best Bets: Rockets Over, Raptors Over, Jazz Over, Knicks Under, Blazers Over
5 Hardest Bets: Spurs Over, Hawks Under, Thunder Over, Nets Over, Bulls Under
Total Over: 17
Total Under: 12
Total Even: 1 (76ers)
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